CICC Research: Fed Holds Rates Steady, Maintains No Change Forecast for 2026 but Flags Rising 2027 Hike Risks
English summary
CICC released a research note following the Fed's June meeting, which kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. The dot plot turned hawkish, with the median projection implying one rate hike this year, reflecting a focus on combating persistent inflation amid a stable labor market. CICC maintained its forecast that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates in 2026, but noted that the risk of a rate hike next year has increased. The note warned that if the US economy strengthens further, driven by AI capital expenditures and achieving a full recovery, monetary tightening cannot be ruled out.
Chinese summary
中金公司研报称，美联储6月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。点阵图明显转鹰，年内加息一次的中位预测反映了就业企稳、通胀高企下抗通胀成为重心。中金维持美联储年内不加息、不降息的判断，但指出明年加息风险上升。报告提示，如果美国经济在AI资本开支带动下持续走强并迎来全面复苏，货币收紧的可能性不能排除。
Key points
The Fed left rates unchanged at its June meeting, in line with expectations.
美联储6月会议如期维持利率不变。
The dot plot turned hawkish, with a median forecast of one rate hike in 2026.
点阵图转鹰，中位预测年内加息一次。
CICC maintains its forecast of no rate hikes or cuts by the Fed for the remainder of 2026.
中金维持美联储年内不加息、不降息的判断。
The risk of a rate hike in 2027 has increased, according to CICC.
中金提示明年（2027年）加息风险上升。
A further strengthening of the US economy driven by AI capital spending could lead to monetary tightening.
若AI资本开支推动美国经济全面复苏，不排除货币收紧可能。